A part of the Australian Public Sector Innovation Toolkit, this provides guidance on what horizon scanning is and how to do it. It includes assessments, checklists, and specialised information about techniques.
This Field Guide is designed to support new-to-foresight practitioners in incorporating future thinking and foresight into everyday projects. In addition to describing methods (including purpose, pros, cons and considerations for each), it also provides guidance on how to advocate for a foresight related project or approach in your organistion, cultivate a futures/foresight mindset, and build a team.
The ""zombies" referenced represent an unexpected and unlikely event for humanity. Stories about the potential of a zombie apocalypse prepare us for a new world full of uncertainty and risk.
This canvas is a strategic design tool for developing descriptive models of transformative futures. It asks users to name the logics stabilizing the dominant regime — and then imagine how such logics might stabilize an alternative in terms of narratives, goals, core values, governance & practices, and physical inputs.
Requires email address in exchange for download.
The resource contains tools for visualizing and anticipating future risk of technology products, acknowledging that once technology is released and reaches scale it may be used for purposes beyond the original intention. The toolkit contains foresight methods, including 14 scenarios, for kicking off important conversations with product teams--including examples of current signals of future trends. It also contains a Risk Mitigation Manual with 8 risk
zones where hard-to anticipate
and unwelcome consequences are most likely to emerge. Finally, it contains 7 suggested strategies for future-proofing.
This manual introduces strategic foresight as a practice in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It was created with consideration for the resource constraints in developing country contexts, so proposes light-touch and low-cost methods. However, it could easily be applied elsewhere.
The manual features a selection of methods and techniques suited for framing development or policy discussions, but there are many methods and techniques available that are considered part of foresight and futures analysis. These span the gamut from long-term processes and quantitative data collection/analysis to participatory workshops and qualitative assessment of narratives.
It includes a review of different methods, including usage, strengths, challenges and examples of each in practice.
The Game of Life 2050 draws on scenarios for a sustainable European society in 2050. It is an interactive board game in which players consider four scenarios that describe the radical changes needed to be living within key environmental boundaries by 2050.
The game takes a minimum of 2 hours to run (ideally 4 hours) and involves 5-7 actors (each played by one person or in pairs) and one Games Master.
Play consists of three ‘rounds’ in which actors are given a set of circumstances that have unfolded at 10, 20 and 30 years into the timeline, and must decide from a range of options how they will respond.
Game materials and guidebook are both available for download.
This resource contains a method library and playbook for commonly used strategic foresight tools, organised by a guiding framework of five planning phases (perspective, opportunity, solution, team, and vision). While it does contain the tools themselves, the resource also contains extensive guidance on each method, including overall guidance, examples, instructions, insights, tips, and tool templates. It also contains overall guiding principles, underlying theories, and considerations for using and sequencing the methods as an integrated methodology. This resource is extensive but organised and navigable. It is oriented toward a growth-focused private sector context but can be adapted for use in the public sector. The resource can be downloaded for free or purchased as a physical copy.
This is a starter kit covering signal spotting, or detecting early signs of change in several fields: Technology, Policy, Business model, Citizen action, Research finding, Design, Application, Idea / innovation. The online resource includes video guidance, examples of signals in the different fields, and exercises for practice with signal spotting. It also includes exercises for signal spotting in one's own context.
This resource is a modular set of tools (10 methods in 3 phases) that can be run in various ways, from a general tool to discover and ideate futures into a premeditated, repeated and ever-focusing exercise to build a vision on one or more lines of work. The resource can also be used to bring transparency and alignment to any organization through repeated exercises. It consists of three types of tools: Worldbuilding, Predictive Analysis and the Optimal Futures. The authors also suggest a process that includes a Setting Up and Follow-up steps. The resource is tailored for group work. The publishers suggest using it in diverse groups around 6-10 people and run as round robin — meaning at the end of canvas, each group presents their findings briefly, and continues to work on the next canvas / topic. The publishers suggest that all parts can be executed over a long intensive day, or over several days session, one task each day. The website also includes facilitation tips for each phase. The resource is oriented toward private sector but could be adapted for use in a public sector context. The toolkit itself is free to download in exchange for your email.
This toolbox is a guide for shaping the future and developing organisational operations. It guides users through how to build an organisation’s future capability to ready it to deal with new phenomena. It guides users through all the steps of building a vision and for viewing, interpreting or shaping futures. It contains three phases: Trends and Signals, Interpretation and choices, and Shaping futures. Each tool includes step-by-step guidance and downloadable resources.
The transition game is an adapted version of “Le jeu de la transition” developed by the French Think Tank FING (Fondation Internet Nouvelle Génération) and adapted to a national defence environment, covering topical areas such as cyber and information warfare, man-machine teaming, and situational awareness and reconnaissance.
It guides groups through several steps:
1) Think about how different context factors and "internal tensions" shape today's state (ordering principles, norms, tensions, etc.),
2) How future trends, innovations and initiatives transform today's state, including chances and opportunities, and which actors play a role, and,
3) Describe how the story of transition can be told from today's situation to the implementation of a new solution in a possible future state
The output stories may take different forms, including text or comics, but is up to the facilitator to define. The resource is available as an Excel file that automatically populates a Transition Graph based on inputs. According to the publisher, the ideal parameters for the workshop are groups of 7-10 individuals and about 4 hours. The website also includes rules for moderators and example outputs.
Futures Frequency is a workshop method for groups of 8–20 people. This website provides tools for facilitating the workshop either online or in person. There are videos that introduce each theme and the facilitator’s handbook includes detailed steps for facilitating the group assignments.
Futures Frequency was developed by Sitra based on input from a development team in various fields. It's purpose is to increase participants’ ability to envisage different futures and take action towards the realisation of a preferred future. The workshop method is intended for use by anyone.
Futures Frequency can be adapted to the needs of various kinds of groups. The publisher suggests possible incorporation of megatrends to bring more depth, weak signals to add context, or other methods from their accompanying Futuremaker’s toolbox.
The resource includes a facilitators handbook with detailed instructions for each stage of the workshop and scripts for the facilitator’s spoken parts. The resource also includes materials to run the workshop, including a slide deck and online whiteboard tool template. The toolkit is available in English and Finnish.