In a recent collaboration to address unpredictability in government planning, the Maltese Ministry for Social Policy and Children’s Rights (MSPC) and the OECD embarked on an ‘Uncertainty Scan’, a three-step strategic foresight initiative designed to reveal unexamined assumptions and “ghost scenarios” that often go unnoticed in strategic planning. The initiative challenged and refined the understanding of uncertainties, assessed their impact in strategy and introduced a tool…
Global: Anticipatory Innovation & Foresight
Work Area
OECD Mission Community of Practice
Governments require future-oriented innovations in order to respond to complex challenges, such as climate change, aging societies and digital transformation, in real time. Anticipatory innovation is the act of creating and implementing new, value-shifting innovations in environments of deep uncertainty, particularly for the purposes of exploration and shaping future priorities.
As Head of Nido, I am constantly looking to stimulate civil servants to innovate faster and smarter. I thrive on calculated risks, ones that we have dissected and are thoroughly understood. Unforeseen mishaps are not my cup of tea. This inclination can be traced back to my previous role as an Internal Control Manager (risk manager). This experience provided invaluable insights into how an organisation structures its aspirations and operations. The public sector is traditionally...
The need for strategic foresight and anticipatory governance cannot be overstated. Governments worldwide are grappling with the challenge of preparing for future uncertainties while ensuring their policies and strategies are resilient and adaptive. The OECD Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI) is working to develop a curriculum and guidebook to bolster anticipatory governance capabilities based on our ongoing learnings from project LIMinal, with the governments of Lithuania, Italy, and…
Innovation has always happened in the public sector and often in response to crises. Necessity is the mother of invention and crises force governments to act and innovate as we go, but who is capturing those insights, adapting dynamically, and changing the way “business as usual” is carried out in the public sector? As a recent experience revealed in Sweden, for successful proactive and anticipatory governance, suspension of disbelief and rehearsal are key, as are...
When I was young, my parents resisted getting a microwave oven, believing it would encourage us to eat unhealthy and poor-quality food. It wasn’t until years later, when a friend actually bought them a microwave, that they relented, and started benefiting from the quick-fix cuisine it offers. They haven’t abandoned proper pots and pans, but they’ve found a way for tradition and expedience to coexist. Fast forward to today, and there’s a similar shift happening...
This is Part 2 of a blog series on Government Communities of Practice for Anticipatory and Foresight. The series explores existing research and international examples and identifies the factors and start-up practices that are likely to catalyse new ideas and embed innovation in organisations and institutions. Read Part 1: “What does it take to set up and run government communities of practice for anticipation and foresight?” From January to June 2023, the OECD Observatory of...
Publication
Supporting decision making with strategic foresight: An emerging framework for proactive and…
This working paper discusses strategic foresight initiatives and methodologies that support decision making and process design. It highlights case studies, international benchmarks, and best practices, as well as methodological recommendations and options for promoting the adoption and use of strategic foresight in government. The paper has four sections, each centred on a critical action to improve decision making through strategic foresight: (i) framing strategic foresight, (ii) building its…
This is Part 1 of a bolg series on Government Communities of Practice for Innovation, in which we will explore the existing research and international examples and identify the factors and start-up practices that are likely to catalyse new ideas and embed innovation in organisations and institutions. Read Part 2: “Engage, test, refine – and repeat: Designing and piloting a community of practice in Ireland“. Government communities of practice are not new. There are countless...
Water networks are confronted with aging infrastructure, increased urban population, and climate change. The City of Greater Sudbury has collaborated with CANN Forecast to implement InteliPipes, an AI-based decision-support system that leverages various data sources to improve the overall reliability of its water network. With it the City can (a) understand better the network’s degradation over time, (b) tailor inspection plans and replacement programmes, and (c) optimise watermains…